My good blog friend Tim has asked me a fantasy baseball question. To prove that I am better then the experts, I'm going to post my answer here. At the end of the season, we'll look back and see how I did. If I was wrong, then I'll give Tim an HJ (Sorry if you aren't a fantasy baseball nerd. I'll post some badass fucking shit tomorrow, reader)
You're doing Fantasy baseball this year, right? I've got a situation I'm looking for help with, but don't want to run it by any of my friends because I play against them all. Figgins was declared ineligible at 2nd in my league, so I need a new 2nd baseman. I was able to pick up Mark Ellis, and I have Ian Kinsler on the DL. Kinsler was batting .425 before he got hurt, but he might not be starting again for another 3 weeks. I was offered Tag Iguchi and Jason Lane for Brad Hawpe. My current outfield is Damon, Mench, Swisher, and Hawpe. Hawpe has been hot most of the year and I think he's going to cool off, and I think it's the opposite for Lane. He can only get better, right? What's the word on the street about Lane?-Tim
Tim...interesting situation you have there. I am VERY involved with fantasy baseball so I hope I can help.
First off, the deal on Jason Lane...he's going to get better. Lane is batting 6th (compared to 5th last year), and isn't seeing as many pitches as he did last year. He's being very patient though, and already has 27 walks this year (he had 32 all of last season). I think eventually pitchers will get tired of having him on base and he'll start to see more he can drive. With Lane, you have to remember that he's a streaky hitter. At this point last year he only had 5 HRs and was sub-.200. He'll still be streaky, but I personally think he's in for a 35 HR/90 RBI/.260 year.
I haven't seen much of Hawpe, but most fantasy experts think he's legit. He's not a "Coors" guy...so far he's been much better on the road (7 HRs compared to 1). He'll cool down some (as will the entire Rockie team), so I he is a good 'Sell High' guy...but only at the right price. His numbers should compare to Lane's, with a higher average and potential more RBI's.
To answer your question--I don't think I'd do that deal, and here's why: I don't think Iguchi is that much of an upgrade over Kinsler or Ellis. Iguchi is solid, but at the end of the year how much better will his numbers be than Ellis or Kinsler? He'll maybe have a few more HR's and a slighty higher average, but that's about it. At this point, I'd rather keep Hawpe and try my luck with either Ellis or Kinsler. Even though I like Lane, Hawpe could be great. And its entirely possible that Ellis or Kinsler could have a better year than Iguchi.
If anything, I'd try and trade Hawpe (or Mench) for a guy like Richie Weeks. He's off to a solid start, and his ceiling is much higher than Iguchi. Also, a friendly reminder to pick up Cole Hamels if he hasn't been picked up already.